Market Reports

2023 Economic and Commercial Forecast

Gallelli MARKET REPORTS

As of the close of Q3 2024, overall shopping center vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at 7.6%, down slightly from the 7.8% rate of three months ago. One year ago, this metric stood at 7.9%. The market recorded positive net absorption of 96,000 square feet (SF) in Q3. Occupancy growth has remained in positive territory in two of the past three quarters, with the market having absorbed 221,000 SF of product year-to-date.

 

Q1 Report Q2 Report Q3 Report

As of the close of Q4 2023, overall shopping center vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at 7.9%. While this reflects a modest decline from the 8.0% vacancy rate of three months ago (Q3), this metric climbed over the course of 2023. One year ago, local vacancy stood at 7.5%. Yet, the trend has played out unevenly. Just five of the region’s 14 submarkets ended 2023 with increased vacancy levels.

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

2022 was another strong year for retail commercial real estate in the Sacramento region with an overall vacancy rate at 7.7% to close out the 4th quarter. With continued robust demand and nominal new construction, we have experienced positive net absorption and a relatively tight retail market. Despite Federal Reserve rate hikes, consumer spending in the region was still strong with retailers overall performing well in 2022.

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

At the close of Q3 2024, office vacancy in the Sacramento market stood at 16.8%. This reflects an increase from the 16.4% rate recorded just three
months ago with the increase driven primarily by a few key large space givebacks from the region’s largest office tenant, the State of California.

 

Q1 Report Q2 Report Q3 Report

Since the first quarter of 2020 (when the pandemic spread across North America), the Sacramento office market has recorded positive net absorption in just three of 15 quarters. The first time this occurred was in Q3 2020, when the market recorded a modest 43,000 square feet (SF) of positive net absorption—largely due to space users occupying space from deals that largely had been in the works since before the Covid crisis outpacing the trend of space givebacks that, at the time, had only just begun.

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

 

As of the close of Q4 2022, overall office vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at 14.9%. This reflects an increase from the 14.5% rate posted three months ago and the 13.9% level recorded one year ago. The market recorded 257,000 square feet (SF) of negative net absorption in Q4.

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

Industrial vacancy in the Sacramento region increased slightly from 6.1% to 6.2% in Q3 2024. The market recorded -176,000 SF in negative net absorption over the past three months. Deal activity (gross absorption) picked up slightly in Q3. We tracked just over 2.1 million square feet (MSF) in total transactions, up from 1.9 MSF in Q2. Despite this, a few major space givebacks in the Davis/Woodland submarket outpaced occupancy gains elsewhere to tilt the market into the red.

 

Q1 Report Q2 Report Q3 Report

As of the close of Q4 2023, industrial vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at 5.9%. This reflects a substantial uptick from Q3’s recorded rate of 4.6%. Developers added more than 2.0 million square feet (MSF) of space in Q4,
making this one of the strongest quarters for new construction that the market has ever experienced (there are only four occasions in the past 25 years in which more than two million square feet of new product came online in a single quarter).

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

 

As of the close of Q4 2022, total industrial vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at just 4.0%. While this reflects a slight uptick from the 3.8% mark of three months ago and a more substantial increase over the 3.5% reading of Q4 2021, it still reflects an incredibly tight marketplace.

Q4 Report Q1 Report

As of the end of Q3 2024, multifamily vacancy in the Sacramento region stood at 6.1%. This reflects a slight uptick from the 5.9% rate posted just three months ago. This increase in vacancy comes even though the market posted increased positive net absorption in Q3. Multifamily occupancy increased by 1,069 units in Q2, with occupancy growth increasing 17.5% to 1,257 units in Q3.

 

Q1 Report Q2 Report Q3 Report

Multifamily vacancy in the Sacramento region climbed over the final three months of 2023 to 6.7%, up from Q3 2023’s revised reading of 6.2%. One year ago, this metric stood at 5.9%, but vacancy increased in all but one quarter in 2023. Since reaching a local record low of 3.2% in Q2 2021, vacancy has inched up in eight of the last ten quarters. But as distressing as a three-year trend of increasing vacancy may sound to some, it is critical to note that typically multifamily vacancy
in the 5.0% to 7.0% range is considered healthy.

Q4 Report Q3 Report Q2 Report Q1 Report

 

Apartment vacancy in the Sacramento market posted its sixth consecutive quarterly increase during the final three months of 2022, closing the year at 6.7%. Our data only tracks competitive multifamily projects with a minimum of 25 units and does not include smaller complexes or fourplexes, nor does it include senior, student, or Section 8 housing.

Q4 Report Q1 Report